Predicting An Early Night

Here, I take a position squarely at odds with pollsters, pundits and political pros.  I expect the presidential election to be called early by Fox News.  For Mitt Romney on the wave of a strong mandate.  If I am wrong, there is a great deal more at stake than my credibility.


With the notable exception of Michael Barone and -- naturally,  party stalwarts on both sides -- the consensus of talking heads is that there will be a razor thin margin for whomever wins.  That view is nearly unanimous across the media.  Based on polling, which, when aggregated, seems certainly to support the conclusion.  But it is the very unanimity that suggests to me that the polls may not be a reliable predictor of voting.  Stovepiping?

Conventional wisdom seems to be divided among three possible outcomes: 1. a narrow Obama victory;  2. a narrow Romney victory; and 3. a decisive win for Romney.  The possibilities bring to mind thoughts of a prisoner on Death Row who sees in his future the prospect of death, a stay of execution or a pardon.

A narrow win for Romney will, at best, buy time.*  And it will carry the unwelcome message that in the hearts of American voters the spirit of the Founders is moribund if not fey.  The great American experiment is finished.  I bet against that outcome as a matter of faith that the Institutional Left has failed (despite considerable progress) to wring America out of Americans.

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*  At this point I hedge a bit so as not to put too dark a face on the future.  If accompanied by  Republican majorities in both houses, a close Romney win would be buttressed by a political multiplier effect.  Add to that the conservative influence of the Tea Party in the political scene, and it might be possible to regain lost ground