Fiscal Cliff: Let's Test Obama

How Steep the Cliff; How Hard the Fall?

It comes to a choice, I think, between acute and chronic pain.

"Fiscal cliff" [1] ranks right up there with "shovel-ready jobs, reset button and pivoting..." as another simplistic and vacuous metaphor.  Nevertheless, the consequences of great tax increases paired with sharply reduced government spending should not be underestimated.  Another recession, bankruptcies, defense vulnerabilities and a probable downgrading of US credit seem all but certain.  But what if Republicans compromise with the administration in raising revenue through "taxing the rich"? [2]
What if they don't?


In the end I think the results will not differ greatly if there is no compromise.  A sudden collapse, on the one hand, against a protracted one on the other.  The terms of a Republican compromise will not shape up to be a bargain in good faith.  In exchange for tax increases there will be vague (or specific but mendacious) promises in regard to reduced spending at some future time which will not include entitlement reform -- the great driver of US debt.  America will be ruined by ever-increasing spending -- with inevitable debt-ceiling rises -- on dependent constituencies calculated to perpetuate the rule of Democrat statism.  The economy will still collapse under the burden of debt; bankruptcies will rise and credit ratings fall.
Even without deep cuts in defense funding, administration foreign policy assures a continuation of weakened American defenses.

I try always to take into account the dangers of apocalyptic thinking, and for that reason I have avoided for some time the position I now hold.  No Republican compromise.  Here are my reasons.

• Sound, bedrock conservative principles are at stake.  America's fraying and endangered heritage.  If abandoned, they will never regain any semblance of their pristine luster.  They will be tarnished, cheapened and more easily abandoned for the next expediency. 
• Republicans will be vilified whether they yield or fight.  In the former case they will be seen (rightly) from within and without as pandering for political gain.  What they will gain is contempt from friends and enemies alike.  They are no longer able to influence the dominant political narrative, [3] and all they have left is the remnant of an already disaffected and rebellious conservative base. Those, they solicit in hard times and ignore in better ones, and it has not worn well.  If the party leadership appeases the Democrats, their hold on office will become more tenuous.  Disquieting for men who are perennially content with the privileges and perks of offices unburdened by the stresses of governing.  In many ways Republicans (including conservatives for whom virtue is its own reward) have nothing to lose by holding their ground.
• Obama, on the other hand has much to gain from the threat of financial collapse and much to lose from the actual circumstance. [4]  In desperate financial conditions, attended by the potential of widespread civil unrest, blaming Republicans would quickly wear thin with the public, and the true causes would come to be seen.  Not only would Obama's legacy be shattered by a likely prolonged fiscal debacle, but his agenda, including Obamacare, crippling regulation, and restrictive energy policy would be mooted if not destroyed.  For those and other reasons the specter of going over the cliff might in fact be the better choice in America's long-term interests.  

Considerable human suffering can be expected whatever the outcome of talks, but there is this: we reject, vigorously oppose and often overcome suffering when it comes on suddenly.  We respond as free men.  If drawn out over years, we become inured to it, passive, resigned and submissive.  Serfs, we are content merely to survive.

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1.  A good, succinct overview of all that is involved can be found here.
2.  Revenue increases will be miniscule, and they are not relevant.  What is really at issue is setting a precedent for government's confiscatory taxing power.  With the hard Left nothing is actually about what it's about.
3.  Owing to the influence of media, K-12 and academia and entertainment-driven pop culture, conservatives have lost, all but completely, control of the narrative. Whatever the actions of conservatives -- hostile or cooperative vis-a-vis the Marxist agenda -- they will end up as goats.  Though being frustrated and resigned to bad press are not the best reasons to stand on principle -- what-the-hell, give it a try!  Might even be liberating.
For any set of facts or events there are always multiple competing narratives.  Controlling which narrative becomes orthodoxy is hugely important.  Essays to follow on this subject and its implications.
4.  Updated 11/29.  There is the view that the Alinsky/Cloward-Piven strategy may be in play, and that Obama is intent on further fiscal and social de-stabilization.  If that's true -- even with the unified support of the Institutional Left, the public reaction could carry unnecessary and unforeseen political risks.