Friday, August 17, 2012

Short Take: Republicans Endorsing Hillary? (*)



In political contests all sides labor diligently to insure that events affecting the contest are not left to chance.  Though mistakes are inevitable, some "mistakes" are contrived.  That's exactly what seems to have happened in the case of the public endorsement of Hillary Clinton by Sarah Palin and John McCain.


Sheer speculation on my part, of course, but let's imagine what purpose might have been served.  I think it's generally appreciated by Democrats as well as Republicans that Vice-President Joe Biden is a liability to the administration.  Suppose that Republicans believed that the President had it in mind to ask Biden to step aside in favor of Clinton as his running-mate; she would, presumably, be a much more formidable candidate.  Why would high-visibility Republican candidates from the last election express approval of someone who might be harder to defeat?  Preemption, I think.

Let's imagine that Obama intended to make the switch.  Aside from the need to shore up the palace guard to watch his back, it would seem politically advantageous to bring in the Secretary of State.  And he could easily have done that without too much fuss, using any number of Biden gaffes as a pretext or by "allowing" Biden to resign for health reasons.  The latter, given increasingly erratic behaviors, would likely be accepted with ease by a sympathetic public.

But following Palin's and McCain's vouchsafing of Hillary, the President's option has become complicated.  Now, if he decides to change horses, he would be questioned about why he thought the Republicans were correct; enough so that he would follow their advice.  Though tacit, it would be tantamount to an admission that he had chosen badly in the first place.  Finally he would be seen to be reneging on repeated pledges of loyalty to Biden meant to minimize and smooth over VP mis-speak.
 
Despite administration denials the President may yet bring in Clinton, but the Palin-McCain endorsement will add to the swelling heap of issues he has to dance around.  One more charge planted in the mine field.

* ---------------
Update: could be Hillary turned the job down.  If so, and Republicans knew it, their endorsement could have been calculated to embarrass the administration...

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